Sec. 3. Atmospheric rivers forecast improvement program
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The Under Secretary, in collaboration with the United States weather industry and academic partners, shall establish an atmospheric river forecast improvement program (in this section referred to as the program ). The goal of the program shall be to reduce the loss of life and property and economic losses from atmospheric rivers through the research, development, and extension of accurate, effective, and actionable forecasts and warnings, including by carrying out the following:
Establishing atmospheric river forecast skill metrics that include assessing the benefits of dynamical modeling, data assimilation, and machine learning improvements in the probabilistic forecasts of landfall location, extreme wind and precipitation, and cascading impacts. Developing an atmospheric river forecast system within a unified forecast system, and advancing next-generation coupled modeling systems, with the capability of providing seasonal to short-range atmospheric river forecasts that include forecast of snow accumulation and other hydrologic components.
Advancing scientific understanding of the roles of atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal precipitation and probabilistic predictions at subseasonal and seasonal scales. Developing tools and improved forecast products to predict periods of active or inactive atmospheric river landfalls and inland penetration over the United States with a focus on addressing stakeholder and public needs related to perceiving, comprehending, and responding to atmospheric river forecast improvements.
Enhancing the transition of research to operations through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s testbeds, including the evaluation of physical and social science, technology, and other research to develop products and services for implementation and use by relevant stakeholders. Incorporating into atmospheric river modeling and forecasting, as appropriate, social, behavioral, risk, communication, and economic sciences. The Under Secretary shall ensure the program periodically examines, tests, and evaluates the value of incorporating innovative observations, data, and measurements with respect to the improvement of atmospheric river analysis, modeling, forecasts, predictions, and warnings.
Not later than 270 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Under Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of the Air Force or the Commander of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve Command, shall develop a plan that details the specific research, development, data acquisition, partnerships with the weather industry and academic partners, and technology transfer activities, as well as corresponding resources, and timelines, necessary to achieve the goal of the program under subsection (b).
Such plan shall be made available to the public on release. After the development of the plan pursuant to subsection (d), the Under Secretary shall, not less frequently than annually, submit to Congress a proposed budget corresponding with the activities identified in such plan. In carrying out the program, the Under Secretary may carry out the following: Develop, test, and operationalize prototype high-resolution Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecasting System models through research and operations partnerships with institutions of higher education and other partners outside the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Enhance data assimilation of current and new satellite and ocean observations that is useful for atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions. Improve data processing techniques related to atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions. Use artificial intelligence and machine learning methods as applicable to atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions. Ensure the surface and subsurface observations of the ocean meet the needs of atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions on different time scales.
To the maximum extent practicable, improve or establish baseline weather monitoring services in areas that have historically experienced, or are predicted to experience, atmospheric rivers. The Under Secretary shall acquire and sustain adequate aircraft, scientific equipment, and personnel to meet mission requirements of the National Hurricane Operations Plan and the National Winter Seasons Operation plan, and to carry out the following: Ensure atmospheric river air reconnaissance observations are available throughout the expected seasons of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers.
To the maximum extent practicable and in accordance with paragraph (4), ensure data and information collected are made available for research and operations purposes. Participate in research and operations partnerships that guide flight planning and use research methods to improve and expand the capabilities and effectiveness of atmospheric river reconnaissance over time. Develop data management strategies to ensure that data and metadata are adequately stewarded, maintained, and archived.
Undertake such other additional activities as the Under Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of the Air Force, considers appropriate to improve and grow the hurricane hunter and atmospheric river reconnaissance mission. The Under Secretary may conduct research and development activities to carry out the following: As appropriate, develop and refine methods to categorize the intensity of weather and oceans hazards, including tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers, on a quantitative scale and the effectiveness of such scale in hazard communication.
Develop best practices for communication of atmospheric river events and hazards across regions of the United States. Gather information from areas prone to hurricanes and atmospheric rivers regarding levels of knowledge and preparedness, including responses to early forecasts and warnings by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Explore strategies and effectiveness of communicating that hurricane and atmospheric river events are beneficial at lower intensities versus hazardous at higher intensity.
In this section, the terms seasonal , subseasonal , Under Secretary , and weather industry have the meanings given such terms in section 2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 ( 15 U.S.C. 8501 ).
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Sec. 3
Atmospheric rivers forecast improvement program
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