Sec. 412. National intelligence estimate on long-term confrontation with Russia

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Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Director of National Intelligence shall produce and submit to the congressional intelligence committees a national intelligence estimate on the implications of the ongoing war in Ukraine with respect to a long-term United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization confrontation with Russia, including the continued threat to the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and other allies of the United States from the conventional and strategic military forces, the intelligence activities, and the malign influence campaigns of Russia. The national intelligence estimate produced pursuant to subsection

(a)shall include the following: An assessment of the efficacy of the sanctions regime in effect on the day before the date of the enactment of this Act that is imposed upon Russia as a result of its illegal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, including— the effect that such sanctions have had on the economy of Russia, the defense industrial base of Russia, and the ability of Russia to maintain its war on Ukraine; and the expected effect such sanctions would have on a potential long-term confrontation between Russia and the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other allies of the United States. An updated assessment of the convergence of interests between Russia and China, an assessment of the assistance that China is providing to Russia’s economy and war effort, and an assessment of other collaboration between the two countries. An assessment of potential friction points between China and Russia. An assessment of assistance and potential assistance from other countries to Russia, including assistance from Iran and North Korea. An assessment of other significant countries that have not joined the sanctions regime against Russia, why they have not done so, and what might induce them to change this policy. The national intelligence estimate submitted pursuant to subsection

(a)shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.