Sec. 1643. Assessment of global nuclear environment
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Congress makes the following findings: Nuclear competition among countries has become both different and in some ways more complex than was the case during the Cold War. During the 25 years preceding the date of the enactment of this Act, additional countries have obtained nuclear weapons. North Korea is a nuclear-armed country and Iran aspires to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. A regional nuclear competition has emerged in South Asia between India and Pakistan. Another such competition may emerge in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, triggering a nuclear proliferation cascade across the Middle East, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and perhaps other countries as well.
The proliferation of nuclear weapons to countries the cultures of which are quite different from that of the United States raises concerns regarding how leaders in those countries calculate cost, benefit, and risk with respect to decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons. The Director of Net Assessment of the Department of Defense shall, in coordination with the Commander of the United States Strategic Command, conduct an assessment of the global environment with respect to nuclear weapons and the role of United States nuclear forces, policy, and strategy in that environment.
The objectives of the assessment required by subsection
(b)are to inform the long-term planning of the Department of Defense and policies relating to regional nuclear crises and operations that may involve the escalation of nuclear competition among countries. In conducting the assessment required by subsection (b), the Director shall develop and analyze a range of contingencies and scenarios, including crises that may emerge from nuclear competition during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act that involve the following: The United States and one other country that possesses a nuclear weapon. The United States and multiple such countries. Two other such countries. Three or more other such countries. Regional and cross-regional geography, including contingencies and scenarios in Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia, and contingencies and scenarios that transcend regions. The long-term geopolitical and military-technical competition as it relates to nuclear weapons and strategic warfare. In analyzing the long-term geopolitical and military-technical competition as it relates to nuclear weapons and strategic warfare under paragraph (1)(F), the Director shall identify— prospective discontinuities in that competition; and strategies and capabilities the United States could adopt to improve its competitive position following such discontinuities. In conducting the assessment required by subsection (b), the Director shall engage the best talent available, with particular emphasis on engaging individuals and independent entities with demonstrated expertise in strategy and net assessment methodology. Not later than November 15, 2016, the Director shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report on the assessment required by subsection (b).